Point at a basin to see its numbers.
How this was made
Sentinel-2 imagery gives burn severity, a 10 m USGS elevation model gives
slope and drainage, and the USDA soil survey gives erodibility. Those three
feed the USGS M1 model, which returns the rainfall each basin needs for a
50% chance of producing a debris flow.
The model implementation matches the official USGS package exactly, and
reproduces the published USGS assessment for this fire to floating point
precision when given their inputs. Compared against a field-validated soil
burn severity map, this pipeline runs conservative: it over-warns rather
than under-warns, on this fire.
Code and
full method